Change in land cover and land use in the north of Jalisco, Mexico: An analysis of the future in a context of climate change

Abstract

This paper focused on the understanding of changes of land cover and land use processes over time, at a regional level. Changes in vegetation cover and land use have been recognized in many countries as a major cause of environmental degradation, therefore, are located in the center of environmental research and represent an important point in different areas as a mean to understand the mechanisms of this process of deterioration and a guide to support decisions on land use policy. The Atengo Huichol sub-basin has provided a set of goods and services to the communities of its surrounds, especially the Wixarikas (Huichol Community). Unfortunately, this relationship has resulted in a rapid deterioration of its natural resources. In this paper, the changes in coverage and land use in the watershed were analyzed, based on scenarios of 1976 and 2000, considering land use and vegetation cover in a Geographic Information System (GIS). In addition, the methodology, based on a model of climate change scenario to predict changes in land cover and land use in 2040 was developed. The results show that the landscape of the watershed is dominated by pine forest, oak forest and tropical deciduous forest. The dynamics of change is centered on the types of coverage "pine" and "oak” forest during the period 1976-2000, the former decreased at an annual rate of 0.20% and the second at 0.76% and in the estimated period of 2000-2040 this pattern is reversed, the pine forest decreased at an annual rate of 8.95% and oak forest to 2.11%. For both vegetation covers, the loss of vegetation in the second period analyzed was greater. This pattern of change is consistent with estimates previously reported in the context of climate change.