Future scenarios (2011-2040) of temporal and spatial changes in precipitation in the Paraitinga and Paraibuna watersheds, São Paulo, Brazil

Rodrigo Cesar da Silva, Gilberto Fisch, Thiago Adriano dos Santos

Abstract


 

The alteration of global climate regimes due to anthropic action and excessive emission of greenhouse gases has been widely researched because it alters the patterns of climatological normals, generating changes in temperatures and precipitation worldwide. This study aimed to analyze the spatial and temporal variability of precipitation in the Paraitinga and Paraibuna watersheds that together form the Paraibuna Dam, the main one of the Paraiba do Sul river watershed. This dam supplies the São Paulo Metropolitan Region by transporting water to the Cantareira System, the Rio de Janeiro Metropolitan Region by transporting water to the Guandu watershed, and the Paraiba Valley Metropolitan Region, one of the most industrialized in Brazil. To investigate future precipitation trends, past and future climate simulations were used from the HadCM3/Eta model using the SRES (Special Report Emission Scenarios) A1B, and precipitation analysis using Quantis techniques to determine extreme rainfall and drought periods. The results point to an increase in precipitation averages in the region, followed by a greater intensity of extreme rainfall, which may lead to a higher occurrence of natural disasters such as landslides.


Keywords


climate simulation, HadCM3, Paraiba Valley, SRES



DOI: http://dx.doi.org/10.4136/ambi-agua.2302

Revista Ambiente & Água. ISSN:1980-993X DOI:10.4136/1980-993X


Editoração:Apoio:Filiada à ABEC:
IPABHi CAPES CNPq ABEC