Effects estimated of air pollutants and respiratory diseases using mathematical modelling values

Vanessa Villalta Lima Roman, João Andrade de Carvalho Jr, Luiz Fernando Nascimento, Ana Cristina G. Cesar


This article used estimated concentrations by mathematical model of air pollutants to identify associations with respiratory diseases. Admission data of residents in Taubaté, due to respiratory diseases (ICD-10 J00-J99), were obtained from Datasus during the 01.08.2011 to 31.07.2012. Values of the estimated air pollutant concentrations (CO, PM2.5, O3, NOx) were provided by the mathematical model CATT-BRAMS (CPTEC-INPE). Daily data of meteorological variables (temperature and relative humidity) were obtained in CPTEC-INPE and used to calculate the apparent temperature, used to adjust the multipoluente model. The analysis used the generalized additive model Poisson regression, and lags of zero up to five days. Three hundred and fifty two admissions occurred in the period. Exposures to oxides of nitrogen in the one day lag showed RR=1.046 (95%CI: 1.015-1.079) and at four days lag showed a RR=1.054 (95%CI: 1.054-1.196]. The risk of hospitalization increases up to 17% when the concentrations of oxides of nitrogen increase in the amount of 3µg/m3. The use of estimated data by mathematical model identified an association between exposure to air pollutants and hospitalization due to respiratory diseases, enabling the use of this model in cities where there are no air pollutants stations metering.


air pollutants, mathematical model, nitrogen dioxide, respiratory tract diseases.

Revista Ambiente & Água. ISSN:1980-993X DOI:10.4136/1980-993X

Editoração:Apoio:Filiada à ABEC: