Probability of rainfall for the city of Cruzeiro do Sul, Acre, Brazil

  • Jefferson Rodrigues dos Santos Silva Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciência, Inovação e Tecnologia para a Amazônia (PPG-CITA). Departamento de Filosofia e Ciências Humanas. Universidade Federal do Acre (UFAC), Rodovia BR 364, Km 04, CEP: 69920-900, Rio Branco, AC, Brazil.
  • Matheus Kucmanski Taveira Departamento de Agronomia. Universidade Federal do Acre (UFAC), Rodovia BR 364, Km 04, CEP: 69920-900, Rio Branco, AC, Brazil.
  • Rodrigo Otávio Peréa Serrano Programa de Pós-Graduação em Ciência, Inovação e Tecnologia para a Amazônia (PPG-CITA). Departamento de Filosofia e Ciências Humanas. Universidade Federal do Acre (UFAC), Rodovia BR 364, Km 04, CEP: 69920-900, Rio Branco, AC, Brazil.
  • Anderson Azevedo Mesquita Departamento de Filosofia e Ciências Humanas. Universidade Federal do Acre (UFAC), Rodovia BR 364, Km 04, CEP: 69920-900, Rio Branco, AC, Brazil.
  • José Genivaldo do Vale Moreira Universidade Federal do Acre (UFAC), Campus Floresta, Gleba Formoso, Lote 245, CEP: 69980-000, Cruzeiro do Sul, AC, Brazil.
DOI: https://doi.org/10.4136/ambi-agua.2593
Keywords: agricultural planning, expected rain precipitation, probability distribution.

Abstract

Due to randomness in the occurrence of hydrological phenomena, the estimation of probable rain precipitation in a given region is important in assisting decision-making. This work aimed to adjust the probabilistic model of the Gamma distribution to the monthly and annual rainfall totals recorded in the city of Cruzeiro do Sul, Acre, for the period between 1970 and 2019, in addition to estimating the expected values at different probability levels. Using the maximum likelihood method, the distribution parameters were estimated, with adherence ratified by the Kolmogorov-Smirnov test. The results showed that the Gamma distribution was adequate to adjust the data; the region has two well-defined periods in its rainfall pattern; the mean precipitation values recorded in the locality are between 25% and 40% of probability. Finally, probable rainfall values were presented at different probability levels for the city of Cruzeiro do Sul.


Published
26/01/2021
Issue
Vol. 16 No. 1 (2021)
Section
Papers

Authors maintain the copyrights for their work. However, they grant rights of first publication to Ambiente e Agua - An Interdisciplinary Journal of Applied Science. In compensation, the journal can transfer the copyrights, allowing non-commercial use of the article including the right of sending the article to other data bases or publication media. The journal uses the CC BY 4.0 license"