Rainfall trends for the State of Paraná: present and future climate

  • Luciana Espindula de Quadros Instituto Federal do Paraná (IFPR), Foz do Iguaçu, PR, Brasil
  • Eloy Lemos de Mello Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná (UNIOESTE), Cascavel, PR, Brasil
  • Benedito Martins Gomes Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná (UNIOESTE), Cascavel, PR, Brasil
  • Fernanda Cristina Araujo Universidade Estadual do Oeste do Paraná (UNIOESTE), Cascavel, PR, Brasil
Keywords: climate changes, climate models, precipitation variability.

Abstract

This paper analyzes the variability and the precipitation trend of the State of Paraná, in Brazil. For that, monthly precipitation data belonging to 24 precipitation stations in a 30-year period (1980-2010) were analyzed and they were compared with projections of precipitation for the years 2016-2050. These data were simulated by Eta/Miroc5 for RCP 4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathways) from the Center for Weather Forecasting and Climate Studies CPTEC/INPE and the historical data of precipitation were taken from National Water Agency (ANA). The Mann-Kendall non-parametric test and the Sen’s slope estimator were applied to detect trends and magnitudes, respectively. The Mann-Whitney test was used to compare the median of the historical series (1980-2010) with the simulated series (2016-2050) and the comparison of the means between the two series was performed by Test t. The results draw attention to the great variability and significant changes in the monthly average rainfall that may occur, if the climate change scenarios that were considered become a reality in the near future.


Published
19/03/2019
Section
Papers