Future climate simulations in the atlantic forest: transect Ubatuba/SP and Extrema/MG

Abstract

This article analyzes the climatic differences that occur in a transect that extends from São Paulo State coast to the south of Minas Gerais State, including the municipalities of Ubatuba/SP, Taubaté/SP, Campos do Jordão/SP and Extrema/MG. This territory has a complex topography which contributes to the existence of different types of climate and vegetation. Based on precipitation and temperature data produced by a climate simulation model, it was possible to statistically analyze the future climate of this region heavily transformed by human occupation and by the development of agriculture. Using the regional model ETA (downscaling) in the resolution 20 X 20 km coupled with the general circulation atmosphere-ocean model HadCM3, it was possible to forecast the climate scenarios A1B from IPCC for the time intervals 2011-2040; 2041-2070; 2071-2099 and to compare them with historic data (1961-1990). Based on data analyzes, an increase in the average air temperature was found for each time period observed, reaching more than 3ºC higher until the end of this century. Also, in general, there will be an increase in the total annual amount of precipitation in these three periods of time, which might be reduced in the last period (2071-2099), especially for Ubatuba/SP. Although the temperature and precipitation increases are higher in January in nearly all the studied cities, there will be a higher variability in July, showing that extreme events are more likely to occur during winter in nearly all regions.